Oscar Picks 2009

I have not seen all the Oscar nominated (and/or worthy) films as of yet. So far, I've seen four of the five nominees for best picture- which is pretty good considering how few movies I've seen over the course of the last twelve months. I was going to see Slumdog Millionaire today, but my damn schedule got changed... so it was like this for me today: Me= screwed.

Best Picture

Slumdog Millionaire has ridden such a wave of notoriety in the last few months that it would be hard to say it won't win. I don't think it will, but again I have not seen it so it is extremely difficult to judge. Milk, while a very good film is all about Sean Penn playing the legendary Harvey Milk. The Reader is Kate Winslet being as good as she's ever been (and she's been great many times) instead of a worthy best picture. Frost/Nixon is also about performances more than the picture. So, that leaves Benjamin Button and Slumdog. I give it to the Button.

Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Might Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button


Best Director

In the race for best director, it kind of comes down to which bad ass, do it your own way director could win. I am going to eliminate Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon) & Stephen Daldry (The Reader) right away. Both put out good films, but in different ways they have been out classed this year. Danny Boyle, David Fincher & Gus Van Sant are all visionaries who play by their own rules outside of the Hollywood/Big Studio mentality. The question is: do you follow the sort of unwritten rule that the Best Director also directs the Best Picture? If you follow recent history that means yes. In the last 20 years, only 5 times have the nominees for director failed to share in the best picture win (Producers usually are called on the stage for that one unless the director also produces the picture or at least share a credit). So, the odds look great for David Fincher and I am going to stick with him. Who cares if I think he ripped off Robert Zemeckis and Forrest Gump a bit/a lot. It was still a damn good film.

Should Win: David Fincher
Might Win: Gus Van Sant or Danny Boyle
Will Win: David Fincher


Best Actress

Please Please PLEASE let it be Kate Winslet. Her body of work is extraordinary! 33 years old. Has made just under 30 movies. Six nominations for Academy Awards. She just gets better and better.

Should win: Kate Winslet
Might Win: Meryl Streep (you can never count her out...EVER.)
Will Win: Kate Winslet


Best Actor

So, is it really Mickey Rourke vs. Sean Penn this year? That seems to be the scuttlebutt that I read out there. Poor Brad Pitt seems to have fallen by the wayside- even past a career spanning performance by Frank Langella and an out of nowhere yet impressive performance from Richard Jenkins (best known as the dead dad in Six Feet Under). I've seen both The Wrestler and Milk. I liked them both but it is hard to get these facts out of my head: Micky Rourke is really playing the car wreck that has been his life last these past twenty years which perfectly mirrors what the main theme of The Wrestler is about: Redemption and Glory of what was & could have been... or Sean Penn giving one more great performance that seemed so genuine and atypical of a Sean Penn role. The Wrestler is a career achievement for Rourke and I hope to see him get more roles that harken back to the promise he practically had dripping off him in the 80's. Sean Penn will probably win this award and it will be well deserved, but Richard Jenkins scares me because the Academy likes to sneak up on you with Adrian Brody or Roberto Benigni. Of course, they could give Langella a career achievement sympathy award, but that would really piss me off since Peter O'Toole has never won the Best Actor trophy and Frank Langella is nowhere near the caliber of actor.

Should Win: Sean Penn
Might Win: Richard Jenkins or Mickey Rourke
Will Win: Sean Penn


Best Supporting Actress

It seems that the world is salivating for Penelope Cruz to win this award...or, they are just salivating for her in general and I understand that too. Amy Adams is going to win an award one of these days. She's smart, understated and kicks you in the gut when you see her on screen. But, her curse this year is that she is up against a fellow actress from the same movie in the same category (Viola Davis...certainly no slouch given her volume of work in television and film over the last ten years). That leaves Marisa Tomei who gets better and better (check out her performance in 2007's Before the Devil Knows You're Dead) & Taraji P. Nelson as the adoptive mother of Benjamin Button. Most of the time, these are always toss ups- even when a nominee is supposed to be a sure thing. So of course I am going with Taraji P. Nelson.

Should Win: Taraji P. Nelson
Might Win: Penelpe Cruz or Marisa Tomei
Will Win: Taraji P. Nelson


Best Supporting Actor

Is there really any doubt?

Should Win: Heath Ledger
Might Win: The Academy should consider closing up shop if they screw this one up.
Will Win: Heath Ledger


The rest of my picks:

Animate Feature: WALL-E
Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Cinematography: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Costume Design: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Documentary Feature: Man on Wire
Documentary Short: Smile Pinki
Film Editing: The Dark Knight
Foreign Language Film: Waltz with Bashir
Makeup: Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Original Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Original Song: O Saya (Slumdog Millionaire)
Short Film, Animated: Oktapodi
Short Film, Live Action: New Boy
Sound Editing: The Dark Knight
Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight
Visual Effects: Iron Man
Screenplay, Adapted: Doubt
Screenplay, Original: Happy-Go-Lucky

Oscar picks 2008

It’s Hollywood pat on the back time again- where millions watch the only award show that hardly matters anymore (because the Grammy’s clearly suck). Do the Oscars matter now that every network/magazine or blogger like me rates this stuff at the end of every season? Where are great stars of yesteryear like Cary Grant or Katharine Hepburn? Tom Hanks is not our Jimmy Stewart- he’s our Tom Hanks and that should be enough. Gone are those golden days of great movies. Sure, they churned out some lower grade films then, but do we really need absolute crap like Witless Protection or yet another Rambo movie? Clearly, there are enough morons out there (studio executives who green light this junk & idiots who fill the seats) who say yes. Okay, stepping off the step stool now and my mega horn is thrown away.

Best Picture

Not only do I think No Country for Old Men is the best picture, but it was my favorite movie last year. The Coen brothers have done it again. There Will be Blood is only good because Daniel Day-Lewis did some kick ass (I drink your milkshake!) acting in it. Paul Dano was chronically under used in his role & left out of the Oscar party. Juno, while very good was too cutesy for a best picture win. Atonement was not good enough. In any other year, Michael Clayton would be the front runner but there will be no denying the Coens.

Should Win: No Country for Old Men
Might Win: Cannot see any possibility of another movie winning
Will Win: No Country for Old Men

Best Director

Yeah, you might think I am biased here with my pick of the Coens. This film elevates their already lofty status to new heights. Paul Thomas Anderson is the serious competition here and I don’t think he going to get it (This is not even P.T.A.’s best movie- Boogie Nights easily gets the nod with Magnolia right behind it). The other three are mere window dressing. This race is the one that might be the tightest to call.

Should Win: Joel and Ethan Coen
Might Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen

Best Actress

This is a two horse race: Marion Cotillard in a movie that no one has seen & Julie Christie in another movie that no one has seen. Ellen Page got the late year push from Juno, but her role is mostly charming smart-ass quips and not great acting (the real gem in Juno is the writing- Thank you Diablo Cody). Laura Linney is solid in just about everything she does and I am waiting for a big role to come her way so she can really shine. Cate Blanchett is not going to win this year in this category since she is nominated twice. That leaves Cotillard and Christie. Gut feeling is Christie takes it as she is an established name.

Should Win: Laura Linney
Might Win: Marion Cotillard
Will Win: Julie Christie

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis vs. the world on this one. His competition is filled with worthy actors. George Clooney might prove us all wrong. Tommy Lee Jones doesn’t have a real chance in a movie most people did not see. Johnny Depp is a good actor, but is wearing out his welcome in quirky roles (note to Depp: please stay away from Tim Burton for a long, long, LONG TIME). Viggo Mortensen in a powerhouse role will not win either (the Academy likes the Best Actor Winners to be in dramas. Only four winners since 1980 featured actors in terribly violent roles: De Niro, Hopkins, Crowe & Washington)

Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Might Win: George Clooney
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Best Supporting Actress

Best Supporting Actress is always an interesting one to try to figure out. Will it be another year of an out of the blue winner like Saoirse Ronan (Atonement) or Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)? Will it be a year for an established background actress to be recognized like Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)? There is always the sympathy vote for a veteran actress like Ruby Dee who has never been nominated and Oscar likes to give these out for career achievement. Then you have the actress who really deserves it like Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There). There should be no question here… yet there always is.

Should Win: Cate Blanchett
Might Win: All four besides C.B., but the lean is towards Ruby Dee
Will Win: Cate Blanchett

Best Supporting Actor

Unlike its sister category, I don’t see the same kind of out of the blue possibilities every year in this race. Javier Bardem should win this easily friend-o. There is stiff competition with Philip Seymour Hoffman in the mix (hell, he could be tough to beat in three roles this year: The Savages, Before the Devil Knows Your Dead & the nominated role in Charlie Wilson’s War). New comer Casey Affleck is this year’s Ryan Gosling. Tom Wilkinson is A-1 in Michael Clayton but would rate #3 in this year’s category. Hal Holbrook should escort Ruby Dee down the red carpet as he is her counterpart this year though I give him no chance.

Should Win: Javier Bardem
Might Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Academy loves to have actors with Best Actor & Supporting Actor Oscar’s: There are currently six)
Will Win: Javier Bardem

The Rest of my Picks:

Animated Feature: Persepolis
Art Direction: Sweeney Todd the Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Cinematography: No Country For Old Men
Costume Design: Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Documentary Feature: War/Dance
Documentary Short: Salim Baba
Film Editing: No Country For Old Men
Foreign Language Film: The Counterfeiters
Makeup: La Vie en Rose
Original Score: Michael Clayton
Original Song: Once
Short Film (animated): I Met the Walrus
Short Film (live action): At Night
Sound Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Sound Mixing: Ratatouille
Visual Effects: Transformers
Screenplay (adapted): No Country For Old Men
Screenplay (original): Juno

Post Oscar Award Thoughts

This year was by far, the worst year I’ve had for Oscar predictions in quite some time. Only 13 right out of 24 does not sit well with me. I guess that is what happens when you don’t do your home work on all the smaller categories (which is usually where I clean up). Still, I did get all 4 acting categories correct (who couldn’t get at least 3 of them right this year with Hudson, Mirren & Whitaker already winning most of the previous award shows & critics polls).

Marty got the sympathy vote.

There, I said it and I think a lot of you out there might think the same thing. Of the five films nominated for Best Picture, I would rank it no higher than third or even fourth. Still, it is nice to see him get an award that should have been given to him twice before.

Helen Mirren gave the best acceptance speech of the night- elegant, reserved, respectful, charming & most of all gracious.

I hope Clint Eastwood really forgot his glasses up there when he was speaking of Ennio Morricone. He looked bad, sounded bad & I believe he knew it.

I liked how the presenters read the script dialogue when presenting the screenplay nominations.

I disliked how the Academy presented the best picture nominations. Please go back to a blurb about the film and then showing a scene from the movie. This was a big, big let down.

Again, the Academy botches up the acceptance speech timing ritual. Let these people speak! This after show speech/web cam thing is for the birds. The spontaneity is gone when you do it that way. Block the show out for 5 hours and be done with it!

Ellen did a great job hosting. I wish there had been more of her in the show.